How will AI change international politics

The low-tech land power of China is now catching up with and may even excel the high-tech sea power of the U.S. by overcoming the geopolitical vulnerability that has existed since the 19th century. This, however, may not apply to the case of Russia, which is technologically falling far behind China.

The AI revolution may also change the regional geopolitical power balance. For example, in East Asia, AI could drastically alter Japan-China relations. AI-related technological revolution has been so remarkable that China might overcome the regional geopolitical disadvantage vis-a-vis Japan in the years to come.

The most concerning element in the Chinese AI application is the breakthrough in the Chinese Communist Party’s capability to monitor, identify, locate and finally arrest whoever is deemed hostile by the regime. Free of the need to protect its 1.4 billion citizens’ privacy, Beijing can easily reinforce its authoritarian social control system.

After completing its public security system, China’s next target will be South Korea and, of course, Japan.
. Arms races are sometimes unavoidable, but they can be managed.

3. Government must both promote and restrain commercial activity.

4. Government must formalize goals for the safety of technology and provide the means to achieve these goals.

5. As technology changes, so does the U.S.’s national interests.

The paper made recommendations, such as that the Department of Defense “should fund diverse, long-term-focused strategic analyses on AI technology and its implications,” and the “U.S. defense and intelligence community should invest heavily in “counter-AI”capabilities for both offense and defense

If AI changes national security strategies, it means that AI weapons could replace nuclear weapons in the future as a “strategic weapon” that can eliminate the enemy’s will to fight.

If AI weapons eliminate the enemy’s will to fight, it means that a nation’s AI weapons can achieve the enemy’s “mass destruction” without using nuclear weapons.

While nuclear weapons are becoming more and more unusable, AI weapons could achieve — more easily and only with the judgment of the country wielding them — the enemy’s “mass destruction,” which has long been considered taboo. For a nation to prevent this from happening, it must be able to deploy its own counter-AI weapons to offset the enemy’s AI military capability.

For the past several decades, the global balance of power has been maintained with nuclear deterrence among the nuclear powers or the concept of mutually assured destruction. AI military applications may fundamentally change this balance of terror.

If a small nation or non-government entities acquires AI strategic weapons — something that I cannot imagine taking place now — what would happen? What if the AI weapons go out of control and activate themselves? Will AI deterrence power really work in the real world 

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